Bitcoin Price Flashes A Hidden Uptrend Signal Amid One 96% Problem

What Happened

Between September 2 and October 8, Bitcoin made a higher low on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying momentum on a 0 to 100 scale, slid from about 65 to 47, a lower low.

Fading Holder Buying Explains the Momentum Drop

Hodler Net Position Change, a Glassnode metric that tracks the monthly change in coins held by long-term holders, peaked at 25,734 BTC on September 20. By October 8, it had dropped 96% to 1,051 BTC, its weakest positive reading in three months.

Market Context

Bitcoin (BTC) price trades near $82,300, still up about 28% over three months after this week’s drop.

Selling volume backs the read. Red volume bars have grown since October 6, but the October 8 bar was still about 18% smaller than the October 2 peak. Sellers are pushing, yet with less force than a week earlier.

So why did momentum fall harder than price? The buyers may explain it.

Holders are still adding, but barely. With selling below its October 2 peak and buyers thinning, price can hold a higher low while momentum drains.

The price chart shows where that could happen.

Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide the Signal

Bitcoin price has trended higher since bouncing from $75,041 on September 15. The pullback found a floor at $80,383 on October 8, the higher low behind the divergence, and has since rebounded.

Holder buying peaked around September 20 and 21, as price ran above the $86,616 mark. That zone now sits just under $88,086, the 0.618 Fibonacci level where rebounds often stall, about 7% above the current price.

The post Bitcoin Price Flashes a Hidden Uptrend Signal Amid One 96% Problem appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Why It Matters

A hidden momentum signal on the daily chart suggests the uptrend can survive. The catch is that buying from long-term holders has dropped 96%.

A Hidden Signal Says the Uptrend Is Still Alive

That mix is called a hidden bullish divergence. It shows up inside uptrends and suggests a dip has cooled momentum without breaking the trend.

A daily close above $83,325 is the first step. Reclaiming $88,086 could draw holders back. A drop under $80,383 would break the higher low and cancel the divergence, putting $75,041 back in play.

Analyst’s View: The divergence says the uptrend still has room, but holders and funds are both quiet. A daily close above $88,086 could bring both back, while losing $80,383 would expose $75,041.

Details

Holder buying faded like this in late July, and the metric stayed negative from August 2 to August 30 as long-term holders sold into August’s rally. Yet Bitcoin still rose 24% that month. Spot ETFs bought $3.04 billion during a nine-day inflow streak from August 17 to 27, possibly absorbing that supply.

This time, funds pulled $731 million on October 7 and 8, per SoSoValue flow data, during this week’s crypto sell-off. A repeat of August needs fund buying to return or holders to step back in.