Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over And September Is A ‘Nothing Month', Says Eric Crown

What Happened

In an interview with BeInCrypto recorded on Aug. 26, Crown said a single item remained on his macro reversal checklist.

He needed Bitcoin to finish the month above $65,708. That close would push the monthly stochastic oscillator up out of its bearish zone. The last such cross came in January 2023.

“I just need to see this month finish out above $65,700. And look, there’s going to be pullbacks along the way, of course, but I’m just generally looking for this mark to go sideways and up.”

Market Context

The Bitcoin bear market is over, technical analyst Eric Crown says. His final confirmation signal fired when Bitcoin closed August at $78,581, clearing his threshold by roughly $12,900.

Crown’s Last Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Fired in August

Crown’s broader macro indicator had already fired months earlier. It combines volatility, percent below the high, fear and greed readings, seasonality, and momentum extremes.

Other market participants reached similar conclusions. Large holders, or whales, accumulated through the summer. Strive chief executive Matt Cole called the bottom in late August.

August carries a median loss of 7.5%, yet this August gained close to 25%. Strip out 2011 and 2014, both deep bear market years. September’s mean return then improves to a loss of just 0.1%.

Why It Matters

September is next, and Crown does not expect much from it. He calls it a nothing month, with an early pullback likely before October takes over.

Those signals appeared throughout the low $60,000s, well before August’s rally. Crown frames the conclusion in probabilities rather than certainties.

Crown expects early weakness to reconnect Bitcoin with its weekly five-period exponential moving average, or 5 EMA. That average now sits at $73,294, roughly 5% below spot.

Details

Bitcoin settled the month at $78,581 on Binance. BTC traded near $77,341 at the time of writing, down 1.9% over 24 hours.

“In my opinion, yes. I’ve seen what I need to see and everything always comes down to probabilities and for me the probability is greater that Bitcoin is going to be generally going up from here rather than down.”

September Is a ‘Nothing Month’, Not a Crash

Crown pushed back hard on September’s reputation as Bitcoin’s worst month. On median monthly returns, it ranks third worst, behind August and December.

The last three Septembers all closed green, at 4%, 7.4%, and 5.4%.

“Ultimately, what September is… it’s a nothing month. You really don’t see all that much. You see slight gain, slight loss here and there.”

The month does split in two, however. Historically, the first 16 days carry a median loss of 8.5%. Applied to August’s close, that points to roughly $71,900.

After the midpoint that median flips positive at 6.5%. Crown ties the turn to three events. The Federal Reserve meets, economic data lands, and the quad witching expiry hits. Earlier inflation prints have already moved BTC sharply this year.

Where Crown Buys the First Pullback

Pullbacks following a large weekly candle usually run near 5%, he said. That is far shallower than the 10% to 15% many traders wait for. The bigger retracement typically lands about 60 days after the first major move up, which points to October.

Crown put the odds of BTC touching that average in any given week at 71.5%. More than two consecutive misses occur only about 14% of the time.

His stated worst case is the weekly 21 EMA at $70,923.

Three separate methods now converge on the same zone. The 21 EMA sits at $70,923, September’s first half median implies about $71,900, and Crown’s invalidation level is $70,000.