by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • Arthur Hayes cleared his “holy trinity” of HYPE, NEAR, and ZEC as the market fell, but he is still holding Worldcoin (WLD) and openly calling for it to rise.
  • On-chain cohort data shows why the one he kept stands apart, and what would signal he is ready to let it go too.
  • The three he sold all lined up with where big money was already heading.
  • Worldcoin is the one place that positioning still points the other way, which is the question worth watching.

What Happened

Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, announced on June 4 that he sold his entire HYPE and NEAR positions, promising a fuller explanation in an essay called “Reality Test.”

Market Context

Arthur Hayes cleared his “holy trinity” of HYPE, NEAR, and ZEC as the market fell, but he is still holding Worldcoin (WLD) and openly calling for it to rise. On-chain cohort data shows why the one he kept stands apart, and what would signal he is ready to let it go too.

He cited higher energy prices from the Iran war, a wave of AI initial public offerings, and an expected market top between now and September.

A day later, he exited ZEC as well, after a critical bug surfaced in Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool. He framed that move as conditional, saying he would re-evaluate and could rebuy at lower prices if his assumptions proved wrong.

The token’s smart money index, an indicator highlighting the positioning of informed traders like Hayes, has rolled over since early June as the price fell from above $3.08. That closely aligns with his selling timing.

Whale-held supply off exchanges also ticked up over recent trading hours, from about 9.61 billion to 9.63 billion tokens, a small accumulation.

Why It Matters

Yet, exchange inflows ran 2.5 times above average, a distribution signal, and its smart money index turned lower from the $75 zone.

Zcash is the one split case. Hayes sold after the Orchard bug and ZEC’s smart money count fell about 4% in 24 hours, moving with him, yet the whale cohort rose about 11% and top-100 addresses grew over 24%, suggesting larger holders bought the crash.

On ZEC, he moved with smart money but against the whales, which fits his own hedge that he could rebuy.

Will He Sell? The Signal to Watch

Details

The three he sold all lined up with where big money was already heading. Worldcoin is the one place that positioning still points the other way, which is the question worth watching.

What Arthur Hayes Sold, and What He Kept

Worldcoin is the holding he kept. Hayes said he is holding WLD through the coming SpaceX listing, which his fund treats as a high-beta proxy for the AI IPO wave.

That leaves one question. If he sold the other three into the crash, what is keeping him in Worldcoin, and what would change his mind?

The Coins He Sold Were Already Being Distributed

For each token Hayes exited, large-holder positioning was already turning down, so his stated sales moved with the broader money rather than against it.

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On NEAR, perpetual whales are heavily net short and sitting on profit, while exchange inflows point to distribution.

HYPE shows the same tilt with more tension. Hyperliquid whales are net short by about $53 million while smart traders and public figures stay long.

Why Hayes Is Still Holding Worldcoin

Worldcoin reverses that pattern. Where the three he sold showed distribution, WLD positioning still supports holding, which lines up with his bullish stance.

On Hyperliquid, every WLD cohort is net long. Public figures, whales, and smart traders all hold long positions, unlike the short-leaning setups on HYPE and NEAR.

The flow picture is mixed but leans constructive. Some smart-money wallets took profit on-chain, yet exchange outflows ran above average, while fresh-wallet inflows surged far beyond normal levels, a sign of new buyers stepping in.

Unlike HYPE and NEAR, Worldcoin shows no broad weakening of flows.