Bitcoin Price Slips Below Key Technical Indicators – Is The Bull Market Over?

What Happened

According to his SOPR Trend Signal, which excels at showing when blockchain profitability is declining, never in Bitcoin’s history have investors accumulated BTC so late and at such high STH Realized prices of $111,400.

Social interest has dropped sharply, and according to Wedson, many market makers are partially selling their BTC and taking their stablecoin reserves to invest more in altcoins after a long accumulation period.

Market Context

Bitcoin price slipped below key technical indicators as it dropped over 2% on the day, testing lows of $111,800 before recovering above $112,000 at the time of writing.

The breach of these technical levels has analysts questioning whether the bull market has reached its end, as multiple indicators now point toward bearish territory.

Bitcoin Price Slip Points to Bull Market Exhaustion

CryptoQuant data reveals Bitcoin’s taker buy/sell ratio has fallen to -0.86, a key sentiment indicator that signals bearish market conditions.

This metric serves as a barometer for market control – values below 1 suggest selling pressure dominates, while readings above 1 indicate buying strength prevails.

The current -0.86 reading demonstrates that sell orders are significantly outweighing buy orders, painting a picture of pessimistic market sentiment.

Historical context shows that this level last appeared during the January 20 market top, around $109,000, which preceded a three-month decline that erased 32% of Bitcoin’s value, with prices falling to $74,000 in April.

Joao Wedson, Founder & CEO of Alphractal, revealed that Bitcoin’s latest dip shows signs of cycle exhaustion that many market participants are not paying attention to.

Historical Q4 Rally Could Overwrite Bitcoin Bearish Price Slip

Market observers show conflicting views regarding potential October gains following the recent bearish shift.

Despite current bearish indicators, several positive factors could send the Bitcoin price upward by next month.

The Federal Reserve’s recent pivot to monetary easing shows that market participants expect the rate-cutting cycle to continue with two additional reductions projected before the end of 2026.

Why It Matters

Similarly, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio is weaker than in 2024, meaning risk versus return is lower, reducing profit potential that won’t attract as many institutions as most people believe.

According to her analysis, a 1-day close above $117,500 would be highly bullish and could send Bitcoin to new highs above $124,000.

However, a close below $111,800 would be bearish and could see BTC target new lows around the 1-day EMA200 near $106,000.

Bearish Wedge Pattern Signals a BTC Dip to $108k

Details

Bitcoin is now losing ground against critical moving averages, including the 100-day and 200-day EMAs positioned at $114,635 and $114,180, respectively.

“So, even if BTC hits new all-time highs, and there’s nothing wrong with that, profitability will remain low, and the real focus will be on altcoins,” Wedson added.

Crypto trader Honey_xbt believes BTC is in a consolidation zone, with the next direction dependent on where Bitcoin closes.

Historical trends also support optimism for the final quarter of the year.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has demonstrated particularly strong performance during Q4, delivering average returns of roughly 85% during this seasonal period.

On the technical front, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a clear bearish wedge pattern breakdown from the recent uptrend channel.