U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly fell in September, raising market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in October. This has coincided with a rise in Bitcoin price. Economists had expected an increase of 50,000 following a revised gain of 54,000 in August. The ADP National Employment Report showed a decline of 32,000 jobs, the steepest drop since March 2023. The weak data shifted investor expectations sharply, including a positive effect on Bitcoin. On Polymarket, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged fell to only six percent.