Ftx Payouts, U.s. Tariffs, Nonfarm Payrolls: Crypto Week Ahead

What Happened

Market activity is likely to be overshadowed by Friday's monthly U.S. employment figures, with nonfarm payrolls forecast set to increase by 39,000. The figure, seen as a barometer of the health of the world's largest economy, is one of the most closely watched economic statistics. In the meantime, long-suffering creditors of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, which failed in 2021, start receiving a total of $1.6 billion as the estate begins its third tranche of payouts. Arbitrum, the largest Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, is voting on investing its stash of idle ether (ETH) to earn rewards.

Sept. 29, 8:00 p.m.: PancakeSwap (CAKE) discontinues support for Polygon zkEVM liquidity pools and Perpetual V1 orderbook. Users must withdraw funds by deadline. Sept. 30: FTX begins $1.6 billion third creditor payout under bankruptcy plan via BitGo, Kraken and Payoneer. Creditors must complete KYC and tax forms to qualify. Sept. 30: Starknet (STRK) launches BTC staking on mainnet, enabling wrapped BTC tokens staking with 25% consensus weight; un-staking period cut to 7 days; rewards start. MacroSept. 29, 7:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on "Payments" in Frankfurt. Sept. 29, 10:30 a.m.: Sept. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Prev. -1.8) Sept. 29, 1 p.m.: U.S. agencies SEC and CFTC hold a roundtable on regulatory harmonization efforts. Watch live. Sept. 30, 2 a.m.: U.K. Q2 GDP Growth Rate (final). YoY Est. 1.2%, QoQ Est. 0.3%. Sept. 30, 6 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on "Monetary Policy Frameworks and the U.S. Economic Outlook" in Helsinki. Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. Aug. JOLTS report. Openings (Prev. 7.181M), Quits (Prev. 3.208M). Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. Sept. CB Consumer Confidence. Est. 96. Sept. 30: Deadline for the U.S. Congress to pass the annual federal appropriations bill funding government operations. Oct. 1, 12:00 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect. 100% on patented drugs without U.S. manufacturing, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture and 25% on heavy trucks. Oct. 1, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (flash). Est. 46.2. Oct. 1, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone Sept. headline inflation rate (flash). YoY (Prev. 2%), MoM (Prev. 0.1%), core YoY (Prev. 2.3%). Oct. 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. Sept. ADP Employment Change (Prev. 54K). Oct. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 47.7). Oct. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 48.3). Oct. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. September Manufacturing PMI (final). Est. 52. Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.2. Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets” Oct. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 50.2). Oct. 2, 5 a.m.: Eurozone Aug. Unemployment Rate (Prev. 6.2%). Oct. 2, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (for week ended Sept. 27) Est. 220K, continuing (for week ended Sept. 20) (Prev. 1926K). Oct. 3, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global U.K. Sept. Composite PMI (final). Est. 51, Services PMI (final) Est. 51.9. Oct. 3, 5 a.m.: Eurozone Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 0.2%), MoM (Prev. 0.4%). Oct. 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Sept. Employment Situation nonfarm payrolls Est. 39K, unemployment rate Est. 4.3%. Oct. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. PMI composite (Prev. 48.3), services (Prev. 49.3). Oct. 3, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. PMI composite (Prev. 48.4), services (Prev. 48.6). Oct. 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. Sept. PMI composite Est. 53.6, services Est. 53.9. Oct. 3, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Services PMI Est. 52. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)Nothing scheduled.

Sept. 30: Starknet (STRK) launches BTC staking on mainnet, enabling wrapped BTC tokens staking with 25% consensus weight; un-staking period cut to 7 days; rewards start.

Market Context

What to Watch

Crypto

Why It Matters

Sept. 29, 7:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on "Payments" in Frankfurt. Sept. 29, 10:30 a.m.: Sept. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Prev. -1.8) Sept. 29, 1 p.m.: U.S. agencies SEC and CFTC hold a roundtable on regulatory harmonization efforts. Watch live. Sept. 30, 2 a.m.: U.K. Q2 GDP Growth Rate (final). YoY Est. 1.2%, QoQ Est. 0.3%. Sept. 30, 6 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on "Monetary Policy Frameworks and the U.S. Economic Outlook" in Helsinki. Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. Aug. JOLTS report. Openings (Prev. 7.181M), Quits (Prev. 3.208M). Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. Sept. CB Consumer Confidence. Est. 96. Sept. 30: Deadline for the U.S. Congress to pass the annual federal appropriations bill funding government operations. Oct. 1, 12:00 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect. 100% on patented drugs without U.S. manufacturing, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture and 25% on heavy trucks. Oct. 1, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (flash). Est. 46.2. Oct. 1, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone Sept. headline inflation rate (flash). YoY (Prev. 2%), MoM (Prev. 0.1%), core YoY (Prev. 2.3%). Oct. 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. Sept. ADP Employment Change (Prev. 54K). Oct. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 47.7). Oct. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 48.3). Oct. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. September Manufacturing PMI (final). Est. 52. Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.2. Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets” Oct. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 50.2). Oct. 2, 5 a.m.: Eurozone Aug. Unemployment Rate (Prev. 6.2%). Oct. 2, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (for week ended Sept. 27) Est. 220K, continuing (for week ended Sept. 20) (Prev. 1926K). Oct. 3, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global U.K. Sept. Composite PMI (final). Est. 51, Services PMI (final) Est. 51.9. Oct. 3, 5 a.m.: Eurozone Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 0.2%), MoM (Prev. 0.4%). Oct. 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Sept. Employment Situation nonfarm payrolls Est. 39K, unemployment rate Est. 4.3%. Oct. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. PMI composite (Prev. 48.3), services (Prev. 49.3). Oct. 3, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. PMI composite (Prev. 48.4), services (Prev. 48.6). Oct. 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. Sept. PMI composite Est. 53.6, services Est. 53.9. Oct. 3, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Services PMI Est. 52. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)Nothing scheduled.

Sept. 30, 6 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on "Monetary Policy Frameworks and the U.S. Economic Outlook" in Helsinki.

Details

Sept. 30: FTX begins $1.6 billion third creditor payout under bankruptcy plan via BitGo, Kraken and Payoneer. Creditors must complete KYC and tax forms to qualify.

Macro

Sept. 29, 10:30 a.m.: Sept. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Prev. -1.8)

Sept. 29, 1 p.m.: U.S. agencies SEC and CFTC hold a roundtable on regulatory harmonization efforts. Watch live.

Sept. 30, 2 a.m.: U.K. Q2 GDP Growth Rate (final). YoY Est. 1.2%, QoQ Est. 0.3%.

Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. Aug. JOLTS report. Openings (Prev. 7.181M), Quits (Prev. 3.208M).

Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. Sept. CB Consumer Confidence. Est. 96.

Sept. 30: Deadline for the U.S. Congress to pass the annual federal appropriations bill funding government operations.

Oct. 1, 12:00 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect. 100% on patented drugs without U.S. manufacturing, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture and 25% on heavy trucks.

Oct. 1, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (flash). Est. 46.2.

Oct. 1, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone Sept. headline inflation rate (flash). YoY (Prev. 2%), MoM (Prev. 0.1%), core YoY (Prev. 2.3%).

Oct. 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. Sept. ADP Employment Change (Prev. 54K).

Oct. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 47.7).

Oct. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 48.3).

Oct. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. September Manufacturing PMI (final). Est. 52.

Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.2.

Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets”

Oct. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 50.2).

Oct. 2, 5 a.m.: Eurozone Aug. Unemployment Rate (Prev. 6.2%).

Oct. 2, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (for week ended Sept. 27) Est. 220K, continuing (for week ended Sept. 20) (Prev. 1926K).

Oct. 3, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global U.K. Sept. Composite PMI (final). Est. 51, Services PMI (final) Est. 51.9.

Oct. 3, 5 a.m.: Eurozone Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 0.2%), MoM (Prev. 0.4%).

Oct. 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Sept. Employment Situation nonfarm payrolls Est. 39K, unemployment rate Est. 4.3%.

Oct. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. PMI composite (Prev. 48.3), services (Prev. 49.3).

Oct. 3, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. PMI composite (Prev. 48.4), services (Prev. 48.6).

Oct. 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. Sept. PMI composite Est. 53.6, services Est. 53.9.

Oct. 3, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Services PMI Est. 52.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Nothing scheduled.