by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • Ethereum is trading at $3,998, just below the $4,000 mark, after one of the toughest weeks since US spot ETH ETFs launched.
  • Data from SoSoValue shows $800m left in Ethereum ETFs in 5 days, the largest weekly outflow on record.
  • The heaviest selling occurred on Thursday to Friday, when ETH dipped below $4,000.
  • While Ethereum fought back from ETF-driven losses, broader sentiment remains fragile.

What Happened

Ethereum is trading at $3,998, just below the $4,000 mark, after one of the toughest weeks since US spot ETH ETFs launched. Data from SoSoValue shows $800m left in Ethereum ETFs in 5 days, the largest weekly outflow on record. The heaviest selling occurred on Thursday to Friday, when ETH dipped below $4,000.

Despite institutional selling, Ethereum held up. By Sunday, ETH was back above $4,000. Buyers still see value at these levels. The bounce is not just retail dip buying but long-term investor conviction that Ethereum’s fundamentals (decentralized finance and enterprise adoption) are still intact.

While Ethereum fought back from ETF-driven losses, broader sentiment remains fragile. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 34, a reading that is deep in the “fear” zone. Historically, such pessimism can discourage short-term buying, yet it has also marked attractive entry points for contrarian investors.

Market Context

Macroeconomic headwinds add to the uncertainty. A stronger U.S. dollar, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and renewed volatility across equities all weigh on digital assets.

In effect, ETH’s price action is caught between two forces:

Positive support from retail demand and contrarian sentiment in fearful markets

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Signals

From a technical perspective, Ethereum price prediction remains in a cautious stance. The breakdown from a symmetrical triangle in mid-September confirmed weakness, with support levels tested repeatedly. The 50- and 100-period moving averages now slope downward, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Why It Matters

Fear Index Signals Caution but Creates Opportunity

Negative drag from institutional outflows and global risk aversion

The RSI at 41 has climbed from oversold levels, suggesting room for relief rallies without signaling a decisive reversal.

Aggressive buyers could position near $3,850–$3,900, targeting a bounce toward $4,167 and $4,290 with stops just below $3,730. A safer approach is waiting for a confirmed daily close above $4,290 to re-enter long positions. Conversely, a decisive breakdown under $3,850 would likely accelerate losses toward $3,590.

For now, Ethereum’s ability to defend $4,000 amid heavy selling speaks to its resilience. If sentiment improves and institutional pressure eases, ETH may yet turn this psychological battleground into the foundation for its next rally.

Details

Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund: lost $360m

BlackRock’s ETHA Fund: lost $200m

Daily exits: $250m+ on consecutive days

Still, Ethereum’s ability to stay anchored above $4,000 during heightened stress highlights the psychological importance of this line in the sand.

This tug-of-war underscores why $4,000 is seen as a “war zone” level for Ethereum in the near term.

Candlestick formations add nuance. A sequence of long red candles—a pattern resembling “three black crows”—confirmed sustained selling. Recent Doji and small-bodied candles near $3,975 reflect indecision, though long lower shadows hint at attempts to stabilize.

Key levels to watch include:

Resistance: $4,167 and $4,290

Support: $3,853, $3,733, and $3,590

For traders, two scenarios stand out.

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