Bloomberg’s Analyst Says Crypto Etf Approvals Now ‘100%’ Certain, Solana Etf ‘Could Come Any Day’

What Happened

Seven major asset managers, including Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, and Canary Capital, filed updated S-1 documents for spot Solana ETFs on September 27.

Issuers now advance directly with S-1 registration statements, the final step before launch.

Digital asset investment products recorded $812 million in outflows last week as stronger-than-anticipated economic data tempered expectations for two interest rate cuts this year.

Solana stood out with $291 million in inflows amid growing anticipation of upcoming ETF launches. XRP also posted a strong performance with $93.1 million in inflows.

CoinShares attributed the positive momentum to expectations of expanded investor access and institutional participation in alternative digital assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market Context

The SEC applied the new framework immediately, with the approval of Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund on September 18.

Prediction markets reflect similar optimism, with Polymarket odds on Solana ETF approval currently at 99%.

Why It Matters

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has declared crypto ETF approvals are now “100%” certain, stating that Solana funds “could come any day” following the fourth amendment submission.

Details

The assessment comes after the Securities and Exchange Commission approved generic listing standards on September 18, eliminating the need for individual 19b-4 filings and streamlining the path for crypto exchange-traded products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Balchunas stated that generic listing standards make the 19b-4 filings and their regulatory clock “meaningless,” leaving only S-1 registrations awaiting formal approval from Corporate Finance.

SEC’s Generic Standards Slash Approval Timeline From 9 Months to 75 Days

The SEC instructed issuers of proposed ETFs for Litecoin, XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin to withdraw pending Form 19b-4 filings on September 29.

The move follows the agency’s approval of generic listing standards, which allow exchanges, including Nasdaq, Cboe BZX, and NYSE Arca, to list crypto ETFs under standardized rules without case-by-case exchange rule changes.

Previously, each product required two separate approvals, stretching nine months or more. With generic standards in place, timelines can shrink to as few as 75 days.

The multi-crypto product offers exposure to Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano, currently managing over $915 million in assets, making it the first fund listed under the streamlined system.

More than 92 crypto ETF applications now await SEC review, with multiple deadlines falling in October and November.

Franklin Templeton’s Solana and XRP ETF applications are set for a decision on November 14, following the SEC’s use of its maximum 60-day extension authority.

Bloomberg analysts had earlier projected an over 95% approval probability for Solana and XRP ETFs by year-end. However, Solana is now 100%.

Solana and XRP Lead Inflows While Bitcoin Posts $719M Weekly Outflows

The U.S. accounted for $1 billion in outflows, while Switzerland led positive flows with $126.8 million, followed by Canada with $58.6 million and Germany with $35.5 million.

Bitcoin bore the brunt with $719 million in outflows. Ethereum faced $409 million in outflows, bringing its year-to-date inflows of roughly $12 billion to a near standstill, with September contributing only $86.2 million.

On September 29, spot Ethereum ETFs snapped five consecutive days of outflows, recording $547 million in net inflows.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $522 million in net inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT being the only product posting a net outflow.

Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 1.47 million BTC, representing around 7% of total supply, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading at 746,810 BTC, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at nearly 199,500 BTC.