Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can Fed Cut And Bhutan Whale Ignite $120K Run?

What Happened

Bitcoin is trading around $115,800 after sliding 2% in the last 24 hours, with investors weighing a mix of whale activity, global policy shifts, and technical signals. The biggest headline this week came from Bhutan, where a government-linked wallet transferred 913 BTC—worth $107 million—for the first time in a month.

Whales are stirring elsewhere too. An early investor moved $116 million in dormant Bitcoin after 12 years, a rare signal of long-term holders re-engaging. Analysts argue that these shifts, combined with Bhutan’s accumulation, highlight steady institutional confidence despite market chop.

In Europe, Bitcoin adoption reached another milestone as the London Stock Exchange listed a Bitcoin staking exchange-traded product (ETP). Launched by Valour, a DeFi Technologies subsidiary, the product offers a 1.4% annual yield on Bitcoin fully backed in cold storage.

The product’s design bypasses Bitcoin’s proof-of-work model by connecting to staking networks like Core Chain, showing how yield opportunities are being built around Bitcoin’s infrastructure. Demand was immediate—DeFi Technologies’ stock surged 5% on the announcement.

The move comes just ahead of October 8, when the UK will lift its ban on cryptocurrency ETNs, opening the door to broader institutional adoption. While retail investors remain excluded for now, the shift underscores growing integration between traditional finance and Bitcoin-based products.

Market Context

While rumors suggested a possible sell-off, the wallet still holds 9,652 BTC valued at over $1.1 billion. That reinforces Bhutan’s broader strategy: a national cryptocurrency reserve supported by hydro-powered mining. The move coincided with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025, a decision that often triggers short-term volatility before risk assets regain momentum.

Fed cut adds liquidity tailwinds for risk assets.

Why It Matters

Technically, Bitcoin is navigating a crucial zone. The 2-hour chart shows BTC slipping below the 50-EMA at $116,432, confirming weakness after a breakdown from a rising wedge, a bearish pattern that signals trend exhaustion. Current support rests near $114,412, reinforced by the 200-EMA at $114,070.

Momentum indicators highlight this tug-of-war. The RSI near 32 suggests oversold conditions, opening the door for a relief bounce. Recent candlesticks resemble the early stages of “three black crows,” a bearish continuation signal, though a bullish engulfing above $116,500 could quickly flip sentiment.

For traders, the $114K–$116.5K zone is critical. Holding this support keeps Bitcoin’s higher-lows structure from early September intact, paving the way for a run at $119,150 and ultimately $120,298. Analysts note that sustained strength here could even open the path toward $130K in the coming weeks.

Despite short-term selling pressure, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains underpinned by institutional activity, whale confidence, and policy tailwinds. Bhutan’s $107M move, London’s staking ETP, and shifting EU sanctions highlight Bitcoin’s global relevance—not just as an asset, but as a financial instrument shaping cross-border flows.

Traders watching the $114K–$116.5K zone may find clues on whether Bitcoin’s next move is a deeper pullback or a breakout run toward $120K and beyond.

Details

Key takeaways so far:

Bhutan transferred 913 BTC ($107M), still holds 9,652 BTC ($1.1B).

Dormant whale wallet moved $116M after 12 years.

Institutions Embrace Staking ETPs

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Levels to Watch Near $120K

If Bitcoin loses this region, downside targets sit at $113,371 and $112,137. On the flip side, a move back above $116,500 would mark a false breakdown, potentially trapping short sellers and fueling a rebound toward $117,978 resistance.

Key levels to monitor:

Support: $114,412 / $114,070

Resistance: $116,500 / $117,978

Bullish breakout targets: $119,150–$120,298

Wrap-Up

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