All Eyes On The Fed, All Ears On Powell: Crypto Daybook Americas

What Happened

Global markets are treading water as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s latest policy move, coming later today. It’s almost a given the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Traders will instead focus on Chair Jerome Powell for signs on future policy.

Investors are currently pricing in six interest rate cuts. Three this year, and three next year.

“A deviation in the dot plot, however, would challenge that balance, forcing investors to recalibrate around the risk of tighter-than-expected conditions or a Fed struggling to respond effectively to weaker growth,” the analysts added.

Markets' real test will be Powell’s press conference. A balanced message is likely to further support risk assets, while hesitation would force investors to reassess.

Nothing scheduled. MacroSept. 17, 9:45 a.m.: Canada benchmark interest rate decision Est. 2.5% followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 2 p.m.: Fed decision on U.S. interest rates, including updated dot plot projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil benchmark interest rate decision Est. 15%. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)None scheduled. Nothing scheduled. Sept. 17, 9:45 a.m.: Canada benchmark interest rate decision Est. 2.5% followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 2 p.m.: Fed decision on U.S. interest rates, including updated dot plot projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil benchmark interest rate decision Est. 15%. None scheduled. Token Events Governance votes & callsMantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18. Sept. 17, 6 a.m.: DYdX to host an Analyst Call. UnlocksSept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million. Token LaunchesSept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the Delayed Upgrade Penalty takes effect.

Sept. 17, 9:45 a.m.: Canada benchmark interest rate decision Est. 2.5% followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 2 p.m.: Fed decision on U.S. interest rates, including updated dot plot projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil benchmark interest rate decision Est. 15%. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)None scheduled. Nothing scheduled. Sept. 17, 9:45 a.m.: Canada benchmark interest rate decision Est. 2.5% followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 2 p.m.: Fed decision on U.S. interest rates, including updated dot plot projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil benchmark interest rate decision Est. 15%. None scheduled. Token Events Governance votes & callsMantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18. Sept. 17, 6 a.m.: DYdX to host an Analyst Call. UnlocksSept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million. Token LaunchesSept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the Delayed Upgrade Penalty takes effect.

None scheduled. Nothing scheduled. Sept. 17, 9:45 a.m.: Canada benchmark interest rate decision Est. 2.5% followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 2 p.m.: Fed decision on U.S. interest rates, including updated dot plot projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference. Sept. 17, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil benchmark interest rate decision Est. 15%. None scheduled. Token Events Governance votes & callsMantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18. Sept. 17, 6 a.m.: DYdX to host an Analyst Call. UnlocksSept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million. Token LaunchesSept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the Delayed Upgrade Penalty takes effect.

MantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18. Sept. 17, 6 a.m.: DYdX to host an Analyst Call. UnlocksSept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million. Token LaunchesSept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the Delayed Upgrade Penalty takes effect.

Sept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million. Token LaunchesSept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the Delayed Upgrade Penalty takes effect.

Token Launches

Sept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the Delayed Upgrade Penalty takes effect.

Market Context

The cryptocurrency market is no different. Over the last 24 hours, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is practically unchanged, up just 0.2%, while bitcoin (BTC) is around 1% higher. Gold, which surged to a record $3,700 this week, slipped 0.5%. The U.S. dollar index added less than 0.2%.

Equities markets have barely moved as well. U.S. stocks slipped in yesterday’s session, while European equities are edging higher. The FTSE All-World Index advanced less than 0.1% today.

“Market expectations are positioned in a Goldilocks range: six cuts represent a middle ground between caution and aggression,” analysts at QCP Capital wrote in a note.

Why It Matters

In the last 30 days, the FTSE All-World Index rose 2.78%, while the CoinDesk 20 added 2.6% and BTC gained 1.6%. The moves suggest caution even ahead of rate cut that would boost the appeal of risk assets.

Details

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

That's today. But over a longer period, cryptocurrencies have lagged behind equities.

Despite the uncertainty, demand for spot crypto ETFs has remained robust. This week, net inflows for spot BTC ETFs are around $550 million, while spot ether ETFs brought in nearly $300 million. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto

Macro

Sept. 17, 2 p.m.: Fed decision on U.S. interest rates, including updated dot plot projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference.

Sept. 17, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil benchmark interest rate decision Est. 15%.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Nothing scheduled.

Sept. 17, 9:45 a.m.: Canada benchmark interest rate decision Est. 2.5% followed by a press conference.

None scheduled.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Sept. 17, 6 a.m.: DYdX to host an Analyst Call.

Unlocks